THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY…AS WE SIT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AND TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON SATURDAY AS ENERGY
BEGINS TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE…AND AS THE RIDGE SPREADS EASTWARD A
LITTLE.

FOG AND SOME ISOLATED LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED IN SOME VALLEY AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING…AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. GENERALLY THIS FOG HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD OR VERY THICK.
AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO LATER THIS MORNING AS THE DEW
POINT SPREADS AT THE FAVORED LOCATIONS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY…EXCEPT FOR A FEW
THIN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BUT EVEN WITH ALL THE
SUNSHINE…TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RECOVERING FROM THE
VERY COLD MORNING LOWS. AT 3 AM MOST OBSERVATIONS WERE BELOW ZERO…
AND WERE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. GUNNISON CAME IN
AT 41 DEGREES BELOW YESTERSAY`S 3 AM READING! SO AGAIN HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY`S HIGHS. AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT…RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN.

BY SATURDAY WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. SO WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME WARMING…AGAIN MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. INVERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS…WITH NO
RELIEF TO THE COLD TEMPS AT GRAND JUNCTION…CANYONLANDS AIRPORT…
VERNAL AND GUNNISON. MORE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRIES TO MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT…BUT THEY
WILL STILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS. THE STRONGLY
INVERTED AND STAGNANT VALLEYS WILL REMAIN VERY COLD AND WILL AGAIN
SEE SOME FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

A COLD ARCTIC SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DROPS INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ONE
WIGGLE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PASSED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST
NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SNOW OVER THE FAVORED NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. CRAIG AND HAYDEN ALSO SAW A PERIOD OF SNOW…BUT
IT DID NOT LAST TOO LONG THERE. SNOW ALSO FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AT
ASPEN OR MEEKER SO HAVE LEFT THE CURRENT ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE STEAMBOAT AREA…DECIDING AGAINST EXPANDING IT TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OR OTHER NORTHERN VALLEYS.

THE ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AS SNOW WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER AS THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY…BEFORE STALLING ALONG
THE TAVAPUTS AND FLATTOPS. COLD AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY FILTER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT IT WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED…
DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. MODEL QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT WEST OF
STEAMBOAT…AND SOUTH OF THE FLATTOPS…SINCE MOST ENERGY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

BY LATE TONIGHT…ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DIMINISHED WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE DIVIDE AREA. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA EXCEPT
SOME CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST TO BRING ANY SNOW. BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN THE FAR SOUTH AFFECTED BY THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SEE ENOUGH CLEARING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE
A COLD NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
AGAIN RE-INTENSIFY…WITH THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS REMAINING IN THE
DEEP FREEZE.
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MAIN CONCERN THIS SHORT TERM IS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORCING
RATHER WEAK AND JET SUPPORT ALMOST NONEXISTENT. BUT COMBINATION OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHICS YIELD RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE RHEA-THALER SNOW MODEL. LAPSE RATES
ALSO STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY YIELDING GOOD RESPONSE AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION AND DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
REGION LOWERS TO NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL. AS SUCH HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WATCH FOR THE NRN MTNS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER IS THE
LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT RANGE MDLS. THE NAM QPF IS RATHER
ANEMIC AND BEGINS ALMOST 24 HRS AFTER THE THE GFS. SO BELIEVE A
WATCH IS THE WAY TO GO. SOME QUESTION ALSO AS TO ZNS 5 AND 10. FOR
NOW BELIEVE THEY WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
REEVALUATE.

GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS STILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AND
HAND EDITING TOWARD PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHOICE AS
INVERSIONS HANG TOUGH IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER WILL
BE MODIFIED BY THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER. DESPITE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS EXPECT PATCHY FOR TO REFORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT…

THE WEAKER OF TWO TROUGHS PASSED LAST EVENING. THIS STORM PRIMED THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR SNOWFALL PRODUCTION…WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
SATURATED AND MTN TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR DENDRITE GROWTH
TEMPERATURES (SINGLE DIGIT F). THEREFORE LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS
CONTINUED THIS MORNING IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE SECOND STRONGER TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY NE UTAH
AND EXTREME NW CO ARE PROGGED TO MISS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT.

00Z AND 06Z MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH DETAILS. NW-SE
ORIENTED JET NOSE DIVES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS PRODUCES UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION WITH A Q-CONVERGENCE BULLS-EYE PASSING OVER THE CORTEZ AREA
THIS EVENING. BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR-CORNERS
WILL PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL INTENSITIES. COORDINATED WITH SLC…
AND ABQ OFFICES TO RAISE HIGHLIGHTS IN THESE AREAS. THIS DYNAMICAL
SNOWFALL BURST WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE VALLEYS COULD GET A QUICK 2-4 INCH BURST OF SNOW MAINLY
THIS EVENING. NAM12 SEEMS TO BE PRODUCING LESS SNOW OVER MONTROSE
BUT CERRO SUMMIT WILL LIKELY GET BIG ACCUMULATIONS. FLOW ALOFT VEERS
FROM W TO NW THIS AFTERNOON AS -31C COLD CORE DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WITH THE NORTHERN CO MTN TOP TEMPS REMAINING
SATURATED IN THE SNOW EFFICIENT ZONE OVERNIGHT…EXPECT LOW DENSITY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE COORDINATED WITH CYS AND BOU
TO RAISE CRAIG AND STEAMBOAT ZONES TO ADVISORIES.

A QUICK DRYING FROM W-E OCCURS ON THURSDAY…BUT SNOWFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH IN A MOIST W-NW FLOW. FOG IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS SIGNIFICANT…BUT IS NOT
YET ADDED TO THE FORECAST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO STAY BELOW
GUIDANCE AND BELOW NORMAL.
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A ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON THU. A COUPLE OF WEAK
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRUSH THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING CLOUDS BUT LITTLE ELSE. BY LATE TONIGHT…MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE LOWER LAYERS SO A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE
NORTHERN SLOPES NEAR THE DIVIDE NORTH OF I-70.

ON THURSDAY…A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS…EXTENDING NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ENERGY DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO MONTANA. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND
AMPLIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN…AND THE TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT. THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREA.

HOWEVER…AFTER BETTER CONFIDENCE WAS NOTED BY THE DAY SHIFT…THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR SOLUTIONS. AND NOW THEY PAINT VERY
LITTLE QPF/SNOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FOR NOW I DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST…JUST DELAYED THE
ISOLATED POPS UP NORTH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT…AND TRENDED DOWNWARDS A
JUST TAD ON THU.

INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MANY OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.
HOWEVER THEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT…AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL A LITTLE ON
THU AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE AREA. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT WILL ALSO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION SO WILL LEAVE
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS. BUT SINCE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING…WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY IT THROUGH
MID-MORNING. THE COVERAGE IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTEDAY`S…BUT THE
DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT GRAND JUNCTION HAS DROPPED TO 1 DEGREE C AT 3
AM MST.